It was September 24, 1966. The wealthy and well-connected Vanger family hosted a party at their home which took up much of Hedeby Island in northern Sweden. When it came time for dinner, the Patriarch of the family, Henrik Vanger, noticed an empty chair, that of his grandniece, 16-year-old Harriet. The next morning she was still missing at breakfast.
Frantic, the family literally called out the dogs and a massive search of the island ensued. She was not to be found. “No, she would not have just run off like that. We were too close; how shameful I was for not taking those few seconds to speak with her that day when she asked to see me. She must have been in trouble, and I could have protected her. No, it’s foul play for certain. ALL her belongings were still in her room, surrounding her bed, unslept in.”
Fast forward to the year 2005, Stockholm, Sweden. It was a typically cold and frosty winter. Henrik Vanger never lost his devotion to finding out what happened to (likely who killed) Harriet on that day she went missing. He noticed on the evening news one day a report that Swedish journalist – and part owner of the small, but acclaimed, Millennium Magazine – Mikael Blomkvist, had lost a libel suit, not being able to sufficiently prove allegations made against a local businessman. “This is going to bankrupt the Millennium,” said Henrik to his friend, confidante and legal counsel, standing by his side. “Go hire that Blomkvist. He’s one helluva good investigative journalist. Perhaps he can figure out whatever happened to Harriet.”
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Small caps gave back some of their first quarter gains with the Russell 2000 index delivering a total return of -3.28%. Potential slowing in the US economy weighed on investor sentiment but lent credence to a soft landing scenario in 2024. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) drifted lower during the quarter, coming in below expectations at 3.0% as inflationary pressures have eased. Employment was muddled during the period as non-farm payroll growth was positive but volatile while unemployment steadily climbed to 4.1%. Despite softening data, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held its ground on easing at its June meeting, forecasting only one Fed funds rate cut in 2024, down from 3 cuts from its March meeting. The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened with the yield on the 10-year note rising 16 basis points (bps) to end June at 4.36%.
Stylistically, growth stocks outperformed their value counterparts during the quarter as evidenced by the Russell 2000 Growth Index returning -2.92% compared to -3.64% for the Russell 2000 Value Index. There were three sectors that posted a positive absolute return in the growth index while all sectors in the value index were negative. Two of the largest names in the growth index for the first quarter, Super Micro and MicroStrategy, were the worst performers in the second quarter. Whether the underperformance was a function of decreasing AI enthusiasm or selling in advance of the two companies graduating to the larger Russell 1000 Index, it’s fair to say that the concentration and performance impact from both companies will be discussed by active small cap managers and academics for years to come. Pockets of exuberance can still be seen in the small cap universe as noted by the fact that Carvana, a volatile used car selling platform that had completed a distressed debt exchange in the fall of 2023, was the top contributor in the Russell 2000 Value Index as well as a top contributor in the Growth Index.
At the sector level, only two of the eleven sectors in the Russell 2000 Index recorded positive returns during the second quarter, led by the Consumer Staples (+2.28%), Utilities (+0.13%), and Communication Services (-0.63%) sectors. Conversely, Consumer Discretionary (-5.99%), Industrials (-4.41%), and Health Care (-4.29%) all lagged. Looking at market factors, profitable companies outperformed loss makers by nearly 200 bps during the quarter.
Sources: CAPS Composite Hub, Russell Investments Past performance is not indicative of future results. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Performance Review
For the second quarter of 2024, the Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite posted a total return of -1.56% net of fees (-1.41% gross of fees), outperforming the -3.28% total return of the Russell 2000 Index. Outperformance was primarily driven by security selection while allocation effects also contributed. Overall, security selection was strongest within the Information Technology, Energy, and Financials sectors and weakest in Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Materials. From an allocation perspective, the portfolio benefitted from an underweight in Consumer Discretionary and an overweight in Information Technology, however, this was partially offset by an overweight in Industrials and an underweight in Financials.
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Ardmore Shipping
Carter’s
Dycom Industries
Cerence
Baldwin Insurance Group
Acadia Healthcare
TKO Group Holdings
Charles River Laboratories
Benchmark Electronics
The AZEK Company
CONTRIBUTORS
Ardmore Shipping (ASC), a product and chemical transportation company focused on modern mid-sized vessels, appreciated amid global refinery shifts and geopolitical factors, boosted voyage lengths and demand for product tankers. We maintain a position, as we believe the company continues to operate from a position of strength, driven by recent shareholder-friendly capital allocation decisions, strong operating performance, and a favorable industry supply-demand backdrop.
Dycom Industries (DY), a provider of engineering and construction services to the telecommunications and cable television industries, benefitted from continued growth in its core business, funding tailwinds, and expanding margins as demand for wireline services continues to grow. We maintain a position as we believe the company remains well positioned for longer-term growth alongside secular trends for expanding fiber deployments to support faster broadband connectivity speeds and opportunities to deploy fiber to rural or underserved areas across the country.
DETRACTORS
Carter’s (CRI), a leading marketer of baby and young children’s apparel in North America, declined amid a cautious consumer spending environment and weak direct-to-consumer trends for the business during the quarter. We maintain our position as we believe the company has a strong brand in a stable category and that store rationalization efforts and an improving demographic backdrop can drive a sales recovery in the business in periods to come.
Cerence (CRNC), a developer of voice-connected technology for the transportation market, declined after guiding down the full-year revenue forecast along with the CFO’s departure. As discussed later, the investment team decided to sell the full position during the quarter.
Recent Portfolio Activity
Buys/Acquisitions
Sells/Liquidations
Chart Industries
AZZ
Littelfuse
Cerence
PowerSchool
BUYS/ACQUISITIONS
Chart Industries (GTLS), an industrial equipment manufacturer that provides cryogenic equipment for storage, distribution, and other processes within the industrial gas and LNG, hydrogen, helium, carbon capture and water treatment industries was added to the portfolio. Strong forward demand for LNG and accelerating hydrogen opportunities coupled with company-specific improvement initiatives should benefit the company moving forward.
Littelfuse (LFUS), a designer and manufacturer of circuit protection, power control, and sensing products for the automotive, industrial, medical, and consumer end markets, was added to the portfolio. We believe the company’s dominant position in circuit protection and growing presence in automotive sensors and power semiconductors/components should benefit from ongoing efforts to solve power control and connection problems between the digital and physical worlds.
SELLS/LIQUIDATIONS
AZZ (AZZ), a provider of hot dip galvanizing and coil coating solutions, was sold during the quarter as the company’s stock price appreciated significantly since our initial purchase causing the reward to risk ratio to compress.
Cerence (CRNC), a provider of speech recognition and voice technologies for automotive applications was sold as the company embarked on a strategic shift to capitalize on the AI opportunity disrupting the financial progress we were anticipating.
PowerSchool (PWSC), a leading provider of cloud-based software for K-12 education in North America, was removed from the portfolio following the announcement the company was being taken private by investment firm Bain Capital.
Outlook
We continue to remain optimistic about the long-term potential for the small-cap segment of the U.S. market as valuations and potential tailwinds bode well for the asset class. As we look out to the second half of 2024, we are cautiously constructive as encouraging signs of economic stability are balanced by now consensus expectations of a soft landing scenario and the pricing of risk. So, despite greater clarity over the Fed’s path from here, there remains a long list of items creating uncertainty that could lead to greater volatility in 2024 including, but not limited to, signs that inflationary pressures have not yet fully dissipated, geopolitical tensions, U.S. equity index concentration issues, ongoing commercial real estate and regional banking concerns, and the looming presidential election. We are well aware that most of these issues are well known, but the timing and magnitude of the impact of any and all of these issues remains unpredictable. Therefore, as we always have, we will continue to avoid the temptation to forecast their outcome in favor of assessing the potential impact from a range of potential outcomes within our company‐specific, bottom-up analysis, and quality focus.
From an asset class perspective, valuations of small versus large continue to remain near multi-decade lows, which we believe suggests a more favorable setup for small caps relative to large caps in the periods to come (15.6x P/E for the Russell 2000 Index vs. 24.8x P/E for the Russell 1000 Index). Against a backdrop of moderating inflation, normalized interest rates, and a still growing U.S. economy, it looks to us that small-cap’s stretch of underperformance has the potential to end. If the economy continues to stabilize, our view is that valuations are likely to rise for those businesses that have largely sat out the mega-cap performance regime. It also helps that the well-noted concentration in large caps is reaching 50-year highs and small cap valuation relative to large cap is at multi-decade lows, therefore any fundamentally driven repositioning is likely to benefit small caps more than larger companies, in our view. Lastly, we believe smaller caps remain better positioned to benefit from the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing, a pickup in M&A activity, the CHIPS Act, and several infrastructure projects on the horizon.
Positioning
Our current positioning is a function of our bottom-up security selection process and our ability to identify what we view as attractive investment candidates, regardless of economic sector definitions. Overweights in Industrials and Information Technology are mostly a function of our underlying company specific views rather than any top-down predictions for each sector. Conversely, we continue to be underweight in Consumer Discretionary, as we have been unable to identify what we consider to be compelling long-term opportunities that fit our discipline given the rising risk profiles of many retail businesses and a potential deceleration in goods spending following a period of strength. While the portfolio’s allocation to Health Care is modestly below that of the benchmark, we continue to remain underweight the Biotechnology industry as many companies within that group do not fit our discipline due to their elevated levels of binary risk. Given our focus on long-term business fundamentals, patient investment approach and low portfolio turnover, the strategy’s sector positioning generally does not change significantly from quarter to quarter. However, we may take advantage of periods of volatility by adding selectively to certain companies when appropriate.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Boston’s Small Cap Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions Aristotle Boston makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities discussed herein. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Effective January 1, 2022, the Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite has been redefined to exclude accounts with meaningful industry-specific restrictions or substantial values-based screens hampering implementation of the small cap strategy.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs.
These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks. The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments.
The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass.
Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2407-11
Performance Disclosures
Sources: CAPS Composite Hub, Russell Investments
Composite returns for periods ended June 30, 2024, are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
*The Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite has an inception date of November 1, 2006 at a predecessor firm. During this time, Jack McPherson and Dave Adams had primary responsibility for managing the strategy. Performance starting January 1, 2015 was achieved at Aristotle Boston.
**For the period November 2006 through December 2006.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized.
Effective January 1, 2022, the Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite has been redefined to exclude accounts with meaningful industry-specific restrictions or substantial values-based screens hampering implementation of the small cap strategy.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Please see important disclosures enclosed within this document.
Index Disclosures
The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2000 Growth® Index measures the performance of the small cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a growth probability. The Russell 2000 Value® Index measures the performance of the small cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a value probability. The Russell 1000® Index measures the performance of the large cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index, representing approximately 90% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 1,000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market capitalization and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the composite may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
The U.S. equity market achieved record highs, as the S&P 500 Index rose 4.28% during the period. Gains were once again driven by the “Magnificent 7.” This narrow group of stocks was responsible for the majority of the S&P 500’s return during the quarter. Concurrently, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.07% for the quarter. In terms of style, the Russell 1000 Value Index underperformed its growth counterpart by 10.50%.
On a sector basis gains were made from seven of the eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Growth index led by Information Technology and Communication Services. The worst performing sectors were Materials and Industrials.
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Data released during the period showed that U.S. economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter from 3.4% in the last quarter of 2023, as consumer spending, exports and government spending decelerated. Meanwhile, CPI inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in April and 3.3% in May. This combination of sluggish economic growth and persistent inflation raised concerns about potential stagflation. However, the U.S. labor market remained strong, with unemployment at 4.0%, and consumer spending continued to grow.
Due to the unchanged macroeconomic landscape, with elevated inflation and a healthy labor market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the benchmark federal funds rate’s targeted range of 5.25% to 5.50% and continued reducing its holdings of Treasury securities. Fed Chair Powell emphasized patience in monetary policy changes and indicated it may take longer than expected to lower rates, as the committee is seeking greater confidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward its 2% target.
Corporate earnings were strong, with S&P 500 companies reporting earnings growth of 6.0% and more companies exceeding EPS estimates compared to the previous quarter. Despite slowing economic growth, fewer companies discussed the potential for a recession on earnings calls, and fewer companies mentioned inflation.
In geopolitics, tensions remained high as President Biden hiked tariffs on $18 billion of imports from China in a bid to protect U.S. workers and businesses. In the Middle East, the U.S. continued efforts to stabilize maritime traffic in the Red Sea while also facing criticism from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who claimed the U.S. was withholding weapons from Israel. The U.S. presidential campaign season also began in earnest, with the first debate between incumbent Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump taking place in June.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the second quarter of 2024, Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap Growth Composite posted a total return of 8.77% gross of fees (8.71% net of fees), outperforming the 8.33% return of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.
Performance (%)
2Q24
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
Since Inception*
Large Cap Growth Composite (gross)
8.77
28.37
6.81
16.08
18.05
Large Cap Growth Composite (net)
8.71
27.71
6.37
15.61
17.58
Russell 1000 Growth Index
8.33
33.48
11.27
19.32
19.43
*The Large Cap Growth Composite has an inception date of November 1, 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Sources: FactSet Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
During the second quarter, the portfolio’s outperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index was primarily due to security selection. Security selection in Information Technology and Financials contributed the most to relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Heath Care and Industrials detracted from relative performance.
Contributors and Detractors for 2Q 2024
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Nvidia
Dexcom
KLA Corporation
Darling Ingredients
Guardant Health
Visa
Costco Wholesale
Expedia Group
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Norfolk Southern
Contributors
Nvidia
Nvidia contributed to portfolio performance in the second quarter as investors continued to view positively the new product roadmap for the rest of the year. The company sees accelerating demand for its GPU semiconductors from hyperscalers and enterprises. Nvidia’s GPU semiconductors continue to be the industry-leading building blocks of the accelerated computing data center architecture to drive AI compute and applications.
KLA Corporation
KLA contributed to portfolio performance in the second quarter as the company reported a strong March quarter. The results were driven by better-than-expected performance in patterning and services segments. The company also provided positive commentary on customer orders and increased visibility on growing sequential revenue through the rest of 2024. Commentary surrounding wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending for 2024 shows improving demand, with 2024 at least flat versus 2023 and growing customer spend driven by strong foundry/logic and high bandwidth memory (HBM) demand from accelerating AI-compute infrastructure spend.
Detractors
Dexcom
Dexcom detracted from performance in the quarter as the stock price gave back all the strong gains from the first quarter of this year. The company reported strong first quarter earnings, beating consensus estimates for the top and bottom lines, highlighted by 25% organic revenue growth. Additionally, it raised the low end of full-year revenue guidance based on the strong start to the year, with record new patient starts. Dexcom is launching an over-the-counter continuous glucose monitoring device set to target the over 25 million Type 2 diabetes patients who are not dependent on insulin. Furthermore, the medical device company recently expanded its salesforce to better address the ~200K primary care physicians in the United States. We see several catalysts going forward, and the stock is trading at a discount to historical valuation metrics.
Darling Ingredients
Darling Ingredients detracted from portfolio performance in the quarter, as shares continued to be weak following an in-line quarterly earnings report where the company provided initial 2024 EBITDA guidance of $1.3B to $1.4B, below consensus estimates. On a positive note, the company called out improving fat prices exiting the first quarter. Additionally, in its renewable diesel joint venture, the company has worked through higher-cost feedstocks contracted during start-up, so renewable diesel margins should improve on the lower input prices. We believe there are several catalysts for Darling going forward, including the blenders tax credit transitioning to a producer’s tax credit on January 1, 2025 and positive commentary around contracting sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at a $1-$2 per gallon premium to renewable diesel. SAF production starts were pulled forward to the fourth quarter from prior guidance of early 2025.
Recent Portfolio Activity
The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.
Buys
Sells
Analog Devices
ON Semiconductor
Broadcom
Buys
Analog Devices
Analog Devices is a global semiconductor leader dedicated to solving customers’ most complex engineering challenges. The company delivers innovations that connect technology to human breakthroughs and play a critical role at the intersection of the physical and digital worlds by providing the building blocks to sense, measure, interpret, connect and power. Analog designs, manufactures, tests and markets a broad portfolio of solutions, including integrated circuits, software and subsystems that leverage high-performance analog, mixed-signal and digital signal processing technologies. Its comprehensive product portfolio, deep domain expertise and advanced manufacturing capabilities extend across high-performance precision and high-speed mixed-signal, power management and processing technologies, including data converters, amplifiers, power management, radio frequency, integrated circuits, edge processors and other sensors. The company’s customers include original equipment manufacturers and customers that build electronic subsystems for integration into larger systems.
We see the company’s analog products providing exposure to high-growth trends, including automotive electrification and driver assistance systems, factory intelligence and automation, the Intelligent Edge, Internet of Things device proliferation, and sustainable energy. We expect the company to return excess free cash flow, benefiting shareholders.
Broadcom
Broadcom is a global technology leader that designs, develops and supplies a broad range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The company strategically focuses its research and development resources to address niche opportunities in target markets and leverage its extensive portfolio of U.S. and other patents and other intellectual property to integrate multiple technologies and create system-on-chip component and software solutions that target growth opportunities. Broadcom designs products and software that deliver high performance and provide mission-critical functionality. The company has a history of innovation in the semiconductor industry and offers thousands of products that are used in end products such as enterprise and data center networking, home connectivity, “set-top boxes broadband access”, telecommunication equipment, smartphones and base stations, data center servers and storage systems, factory automation, power generation and alternative energy systems, and electronic displays. Broadcom differentiates itself through its high-performance design and integration capabilities and focuses on developing products for target markets where it believes it can earn attractive margins.
We view Broadcom’s semiconductor business as being very well positioned to benefit from secular growth in data center networking, which is being driven by AI and cloud computing. The company continues to invest in research and development, and we see this as a competitive advantage for the company. Broadcom’s infrastructure software business is a recurring revenue business model that provides mission-critical mainframe support software to its customer base. The recent VMware acquisition will enhance this business strategy and accelerate the growth rate of this business unit, as VMware’s product suite includes key tools for AI server upgrades. Our long-term investment thesis is supported by Broadcom’s success in its strategy of maintaining technology and market share leadership in mission-critical markets with high switching costs and deep profit pools.
Sells
ON Semiconductor
We sold ON Semiconductor and have become more cautious on the global automotive market, especially for electric vehicles, which we believe will see a period of slower sales due to both new infrastructure requirements and consumers becoming more knowledgeable about the potential costs and issues with owning EVs. In addition, the market is becoming a lot more competitive on the supply side, with many new models being launched simultaneously, which we believe will lead to pricing pressures for the OEMs, which could create pricing headwinds for suppliers such as ON Semiconductor. While we see global EV penetration as continuing to increase over the next decade, supported by government incentives, we remain cautious in the near term and believe we are entering a period of lower sales trends following the explosive growth of the past three years.
Outlook
The equity markets in the second quarter posted positive returns, led by the broadening secular trend in AI. The move in interest rates was muted in the quarter as markets await a clear signal from the Federal Reserve on the timing of a rate reduction. On the margin, economic activity slowed, with multiple ISM manufacturing readings in contraction territory and a weakening housing market. Equity valuations remain high, with AI-focused companies contributing the most to these elevated levels. The geopolitical situation remains very unsettled, and a U.S. presidential election moves into focus, adding to the level of uncertainty. With many issues unresolved, we could see markets move into a period of higher volatility off very low levels. The equity markets continue to reflect the positive backdrop of growing earnings and a potential lowering of interest rates. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Large Cap Growth strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Large Cap Growth Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Atlantic, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. AAP-2407-12
Performance Disclosure
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Russell Investments
Composite returns for all periods ended June 30, 2024 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Index Disclosure
The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The Russell 2000®Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.
The U.S. equity market achieved record highs, as the S&P 500 Index rose 4.28% during the period. Gains were once again driven by the “Magnificent 7.” This narrow group of stocks was responsible for the majority of the S&P 500’s return during the quarter. Concurrently, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.07% for the quarter. In terms of style, the Russell 1000 Value Index underperformed its growth counterpart by 10.50%.
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
On a sector basis gains were made from seven of the eleven sectors within the Russell 1000 Growth index led by Information Technology and Communication Services. The worst performing sectors were Materials and Industrials.
Data released during the period showed that U.S. economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter from 3.4% in the last quarter of 2023, as consumer spending, exports and government spending decelerated. Meanwhile, CPI inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in April and 3.3% in May. This combination of sluggish economic growth and persistent inflation raised concerns about potential stagflation. However, the U.S. labor market remained strong, with unemployment at 4.0%, and consumer spending continued to grow.
Due to the unchanged macroeconomic landscape, with elevated inflation and a healthy labor market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the benchmark federal funds rate’s targeted range of 5.25% to 5.50% and continued reducing its holdings of Treasury securities. Fed Chair Powell emphasized patience in monetary policy changes and indicated it may take longer than expected to lower rates, as the committee is seeking greater confidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward its 2% target.
Corporate earnings were strong, with S&P 500 companies reporting earnings growth of 6.0% and more companies exceeding EPS estimates compared to the previous quarter. Despite slowing economic growth, fewer companies discussed the potential for a recession on earnings calls, and fewer companies mentioned inflation.
In geopolitics, tensions remained high as President Biden hiked tariffs on $18 billion of imports from China in a bid to protect U.S. workers and businesses. In the Middle East, the U.S. continued efforts to stabilize maritime traffic in the Red Sea while also facing criticism from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who claimed the U.S. was withholding weapons from Israel. The U.S. presidential campaign season also began in earnest, with the first debate between incumbent Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump taking place in June.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the second quarter of 2024, Aristotle Atlantic’s Focus Growth Composite posted a total return of 8.71% gross of fees (8.68% net of fees), outperforming the 8.33% total return of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.
Performance (%)
2Q24
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
Since Inception*
Focus Growth Composite (gross)
8.71
30.46
5.96
15.09
14.74
Focus Growth Composite (net)
8.68
30.34
5.86
14.94
14.50
Russell 1000 Growth Index
8.33
33.48
11.27
19.32
17.49
*The Focus Growth Composite has an inception date of March 1, 2018. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Sources: FactSet Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
During the second quarter, the portfolio’s outperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index was due to allocation effects and security selection. Security selection in Information Technology contributed the most to relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Health Care detracted from relative performance.
Contributors and Detractors for 2Q 2024
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Nvidia
Visa
KLA Corporation
Dexcom
Guardant Health
Darling Ingredients
Costco Wholesale
Prologis
Netflix
Norfolk Southern
Contributors
Nvidia
Nvidia contributed to portfolio performance in the second quarter as investors continued to view positively the new product roadmap for the rest of the year. The company sees accelerating demand for its GPU semiconductors from hyperscalers and enterprises. Nvidia’s GPU semiconductors continue to be the industry-leading building blocks of the accelerated computing data center architecture to drive AI compute and applications.
KLA Corporation
KLA contributed to portfolio performance in the second quarter as the company reported a strong March quarter. The results were driven by better-than-expected performance in patterning and services segments. The company also provided positive commentary on customer orders and increased visibility on growing sequential revenue through the rest of 2024. Commentary surrounding wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending for 2024 shows improving demand, with 2024 at least flat versus 2023 and growing customer spend driven by strong foundry/logic and high bandwidth memory (HBM) demand from accelerating AI-compute infrastructure spend.
Detractors
Visa
Visa detracted from portfolio performance in the second quarter despite a solid earnings report early in the quarter that highlighted continued growth in payment volumes and value-added services. However, shares declined late in the quarter due to a court denying a proposed settlement that would have ended interchange fee-related litigation between Visa, Mastercard and merchant plaintiffs. As a result, uncertainty surrounding the possible outcomes of the litigation has created an overhang for Visa’s shares, even though interchange fees are charged by card-issuing financial institutions, not networks like Visa and Mastercard.
Dexcom
Dexcom detracted from performance in the quarter as the stock price gave back all the strong gains from the first quarter of this year. The company reported strong first quarter earnings, beating consensus estimates for the top and bottom lines, highlighted by 25% organic revenue growth. Additionally, it raised the low end of full-year revenue guidance based on the strong start to the year, with record new patient starts. Dexcom is launching an over-the-counter continuous glucose monitoring device set to target the over 25 million Type 2 diabetes patients who are not dependent on insulin. Furthermore, the medical device company recently expanded its salesforce to better address the ~200K primary care physicians in the United States. We see several catalysts going forward, and the stock is trading at a discount to historical valuation metrics.
Recent Portfolio Activity
The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter, followed by a brief rationale.
Buys
Sells
Analog Devices
ON Semiconductor
Broadcom
Buys
Analog Devices
Analog Devices is a global semiconductor leader dedicated to solving customers’ most complex engineering challenges. The company delivers innovations that connect technology to human breakthroughs and play a critical role at the intersection of the physical and digital worlds by providing the building blocks to sense, measure, interpret, connect and power. Analog designs, manufactures, tests and markets a broad portfolio of solutions, including integrated circuits, software and subsystems that leverage high-performance analog, mixed-signal and digital signal processing technologies. Its comprehensive product portfolio, deep domain expertise and advanced manufacturing capabilities extend across high-performance precision and high-speed mixed-signal, power management and processing technologies, including data converters, amplifiers, power management, radio frequency, integrated circuits, edge processors and other sensors. The company’s customers include original equipment manufacturers and customers that build electronic subsystems for integration into larger systems.
We see the company’s analog products providing exposure to high-growth trends, including automotive electrification and driver assistance systems, factory intelligence and automation, the Intelligent Edge, Internet of Things device proliferation, and sustainable energy. We expect the company to return excess free cash flow, benefiting shareholders.
Broadcom
Broadcom is a global technology leader that designs, develops and supplies a broad range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The company strategically focuses its research and development resources to address niche opportunities in target markets and leverage its extensive portfolio of U.S. and other patents and other intellectual property to integrate multiple technologies and create system-on-chip component and software solutions that target growth opportunities. Broadcom designs products and software that deliver high performance and provide mission-critical functionality. The company has a history of innovation in the semiconductor industry and offers thousands of products that are used in end products such as enterprise and data center networking, home connectivity, “set-top boxes broadband access”, telecommunication equipment, smartphones and base stations, data center servers and storage systems, factory automation, power generation and alternative energy systems, and electronic displays. Broadcom differentiates itself through its high-performance design and integration capabilities and focuses on developing products for target markets where it believes it can earn attractive margins.
We view Broadcom’s semiconductor business as being very well positioned to benefit from secular growth in data center networking, which is being driven by AI and cloud computing. The company continues to invest in research and development, and we see this as a competitive advantage for the company. Broadcom’s infrastructure software business is a recurring revenue business model that provides mission-critical mainframe support software to its customer base. The recent VMware acquisition will enhance this business strategy and accelerate the growth rate of this business unit, as VMware’s product suite includes key tools for AI server upgrades. Our long-term investment thesis is supported by Broadcom’s success in its strategy of maintaining technology and market share leadership in mission-critical markets with high switching costs and deep profit pools.
Sells
ON Semiconductor
We sold ON Semiconductor and have become more cautious on the global automotive market, especially for electric vehicles, which we believe will see a period of slower sales due to both new infrastructure requirements and consumers becoming more knowledgeable about the potential costs and issues with owning EVs. In addition, the market is becoming a lot more competitive on the supply side, with many new models being launched simultaneously, which we believe will lead to pricing pressures for the OEMs, which could create pricing headwinds for suppliers such as ON Semiconductor. While we see global EV penetration as continuing to increase over the next decade, supported by government incentives, we remain cautious in the near term and believe we are entering a period of lower sales trends following the explosive growth of the past three years.
Outlook
The equity markets in the second quarter posted positive returns, led by the broadening secular trend in AI. The move in interest rates was muted in the quarter as markets await a clear signal from the Federal Reserve on the timing of a rate reduction. On the margin, economic activity slowed, with multiple ISM manufacturing readings in contraction territory and a weakening housing market. Equity valuations remain high, with AI-focused companies contributing the most to these elevated levels. The geopolitical situation remains very unsettled, and a U.S. presidential election moves into focus, adding to the level of uncertainty. With many issues unresolved, we could see markets move into a period of higher volatility off very low levels. The equity markets continue to reflect the positive backdrop of growing earnings and a potential lowering of interest rates. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Focus Growth strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Focus Growth Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Atlantic, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. AAP-2407-11
Performance Disclosures
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Russell Investments
Composite returns for all periods ended June 30, 2024 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Index Disclosures
The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.
The U.S. equity market achieved record highs, as the S&P 500 Index rose 4.28% during the period. Gains were once again driven by the “Magnificent 7.” This narrow group of stocks was responsible for the majority of the S&P 500’s return during the quarter. Concurrently, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.07% for the quarter. In terms of style, the Russell 1000 Value Index underperformed its growth counterpart by 10.50%.
On a sector basis gains were made from five of the eleven sectors within the S&P 500 index led by Information Technology and Communication Services. The worst performing sectors were Materials and Industrials.
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Data released during the period showed that U.S. economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter from 3.4% in the last quarter of 2023, as consumer spending, exports and government spending decelerated. Meanwhile, CPI inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in April and 3.3% in May. This combination of sluggish economic growth and persistent inflation raised concerns about potential stagflation. However, the U.S. labor market remained strong, with unemployment at 4.0%, and consumer spending continued to grow.
Due to the unchanged macroeconomic landscape, with elevated inflation and a healthy labor market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the benchmark federal funds rate’s targeted range of 5.25% to 5.50% and continued reducing its holdings of Treasury securities. Fed Chair Powell emphasized patience in monetary policy changes and indicated it may take longer than expected to lower rates, as the committee is seeking greater confidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward its 2% target.
Corporate earnings were strong, with S&P 500 companies reporting earnings growth of 6.0% and more companies exceeding EPS estimates compared to the previous quarter. Despite slowing economic growth, fewer companies discussed the potential for a recession on earnings calls, and fewer companies mentioned inflation.
In geopolitics, tensions remained high as President Biden hiked tariffs on $18 billion of imports from China in a bid to protect U.S. workers and businesses. In the Middle East, the U.S. continued efforts to stabilize maritime traffic in the Red Sea while also facing criticism from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who claimed the U.S. was withholding weapons from Israel. The U.S. presidential campaign season also began in earnest, with the first debate between incumbent Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump taking place in June.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the second quarter of 2024, Aristotle Atlantic’s Core Equity Composite posted a total return of 5.61% gross of fees (5.51% net of fees), outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which recorded a total return of 4.28%.
Performance (%)
2Q24
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Since Inception*
Core Equity Composite (gross)
5.61
27.10
8.46
15.01
13.55
14.28
Core Equity Composite (net)
5.51
26.61
8.02
14.54
13.05
13.76
S&P 500 Index
4.28
24.56
10.00
15.03
12.85
13.47
*The Core Equity Composite has an inception date of August 1, 2013. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Atlantic Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Source: FactSet Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
During the second quarter, the portfolio’s outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index was primarily due to security selection. Security selection in Information Technology and Health Care contributed the most to relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary detracted from relative performance.
Contributors and Detractors for 2Q 2024
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Nvidia
Darling Ingredients
Alphabet
Norfolk Southern
Broadcom
Halliburton
Guardant Health
AMETEK
Costco Wholesale
Estée Lauder
Contributors
Nvidia
Nvidia contributed to portfolio performance in the second quarter as investors continued to view positively the new product roadmap for the rest of the year. The company sees accelerating demand for its GPU semiconductors from hyperscalers and enterprises. Nvidia’s GPU semiconductors continue to be the industry-leading building blocks of the accelerated computing data center architecture to drive AI compute and applications.
Alphabet
Alphabet contributed to portfolio performance in the second quarter, boosted by a strong earnings report featuring better-than-expected revenues across all businesses. The company’s positive commentary on the long-term monetization of its AI investments, dividend initiation and increase in its share buyback program contributed to the strong performance. Additionally, evidence increasingly suggests that competitors’ GenAI use cases have not disrupted Alphabet’s search business, allowing the company to maintain its market leadership and attract incremental advertising dollars.
Detractors
Darling Ingredients
Darling Ingredients detracted from portfolio performance in the quarter, as shares continued to be weak following an in-line quarterly earnings report where the company provided initial 2024 EBITDA guidance of $1.3B to $1.4B, below consensus estimates. On a positive note, the company called out improving fat prices exiting the first quarter. Additionally, in its renewable diesel joint venture, the company has worked through higher-cost feedstocks contracted during start-up, so renewable diesel margins should improve on the lower input prices. We believe there are several catalysts for Darling going forward, including the blenders tax credit transitioning to a producer’s tax credit on January 1, 2025 and positive commentary around contracting sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at a $1-$2 per gallon premium to renewable diesel. SAF production starts were pulled forward to the fourth quarter from prior guidance of early 2025.
Norfolk Southern
Norfolk Southern detracted from performance in the second quarter. The company reported a worse-than-expected earnings result for its first quarter in late April. In the second quarter, the company has been reporting weaker-than-expected railcar volumes on its network. This weaker volume has resulted in some sell-side analysts reducing their estimates for the second quarter of 2024. In addition, sentiment is weak because an activist shareholder was not successful in replacing the CEO of Norfolk Southern during a proxy battle in May; however, the activist did succeed in replacing some board members.
Recent Portfolio Activity
The table below shows all buys and sells completed during the quarter.
Buys
Sells
Amphenol
Abbott Laboratories
Boston Scientific
Accenture
Microchip Technology
Teleflex
Buys
Amphenol
Amphenol is one of the world’s largest designers, manufacturers and marketers of electrical, electronic and fiber optic connectors and interconnect systems; antennas; sensors and sensor-based products; and coaxial and high-speed specialty cable. The company estimates, based on recent reports of industry analysts, that worldwide sales of interconnect and sensor-related products were approximately $235 billion in 2023. The company aligns its businesses into three reportable business segments: Harsh Environment Solutions, Communications Solutions, and Interconnect and Sensor Systems. The company sells products to customers in a diversified set of end markets.
We see Amphenol benefiting from increased spending by cloud service providers, hyperscalers and enterprises on new data center architectures that enable AI computing technologies. The increased interconnect content that AI-enabled data centers require, we believe, will underpin a double-digit sales growth outlook for the company over the next few years. The company has attractive end-market diversification, with exposure to both short-cycle and long-cycle, and no single end market vertical represents more than 25% of revenues. Additionally, Amphenol has strong free cash flow generation, which has supported a successful M&A strategy that has driven enhanced advancement.
Boston Scientific
Boston Scientific is a global developer, manufacturer and marketer of medical devices that are used in a broad range of interventional medical specialties. The company develops cardiovascular and cardiac rhythm management products, including imaging catheters, imaging systems and guidewires. It also makes devices used for electrophysiology, endoscopy, pain management (neuromodulation), urology and pelvic health, including laser systems, hydrogel systems and brain stimulation systems. Boston Scientific markets its products in about 130 countries; the U.S. generates about 60% of revenue.
We believe Boston Scientific, as a leader in medical devices, is benefiting from the strong utilization trends coming out of COVID, positive demographic trends with aging patients, and new product innovation to gain market share. The company has executed well against the long-range plan issued last fall, which calls for organic sales growth in the range of 8%-10%, 150 basis points of operating margin expansion and category leadership over the period 2024 through 2026. Additionally, we see a consistent track record of accelerating organic sales growth and a track record of accretive M&A.
Microchip Technology
Microchip develops, manufactures and sells smart, connected and secure embedded control solutions used by its customers for a wide variety of applications. With over 30 years of technology leadership, Microchip’s broad product portfolio is a Total System Solution for its customers that can provide a large portion of the silicon requirements in their applications. Total System Solution is a combination of hardware, software and services that helps customers increase their revenue, reduce their costs and manage their risks compared to other solutions. Microchip’s synergistic product portfolio empowers disruptive growth trends, including 5G, data centers, sustainability, Internet of Things and edge computing, advanced driver assist systems and autonomous driving, and electric vehicles in key end markets such as automotive, aerospace and defense, communications, consumer appliances, data centers and computing, and industrial.
We believe Microchip’s Total System Solution will continue to support industry share gains and margin expansion as end-market demand for industrial and Internet of Things compute needs begins to recover off current lows. Management has accelerated the drawdown of high customer inventory levels by shutting down manufacturing facilities, and current industry data as well as commentary from peers indicates that overall end demand is seeing early signs of improvement. The company has a demonstrated track record of margin expansion, and we expect to see gross margins trough at the current level and, through internal efficiencies and pricing initiatives for its Total System Solution, expand and drive increasing operating margins and higher levels of free cash flow.
Sells
Abbott Laboratories
We sold Abbott Laboratories given the full valuation and the complexity of its combined businesses. While we like the company’s continuous glucose monitoring business FreeStyle Libre and its aggregate medical device business, we are less excited about the prospects for its nutritional business and established pharmaceuticals business. Recent news of a large jury award at an infant formula competitor has us concerned that the overhang of this litigation could be an ongoing negative for Abbott for some time.
Accenture
We sold Accenture and see more limited upside for Accenture due to continuing trends of more selective IT budget spend and a reallocation of IT budgets to support AI initiatives. We believe growth rates for IT services will be lower over the next few years as enterprises continue to digest spending from the pandemic and focus on more cost-benefit analysis for IT initiatives, leading to longer sales cycles and more targeted projects.
Teleflex
We sold Teleflex given its below-peer revenue growth rates and seeming lack of participation in the broader pickup in health care utilization. Teleflex has struggled with recent acquisitions underperforming expectations, and the expected recovery in UroLift volumes remains elusive.
Outlook
The equity markets in the second quarter posted positive returns, led by the broadening secular trend in AI. The move in interest rates was muted in the quarter as markets await a clear signal from the Federal Reserve on the timing of a rate reduction. On the margin, economic activity slowed, with multiple ISM manufacturing readings in contraction territory and a weakening housing market. Equity valuations remain high, with AI-focused companies contributing the most to these elevated levels. The geopolitical situation remains very unsettled, and a U.S. presidential election moves into focus, adding to the level of uncertainty. With many issues unresolved, we could see markets move into a period of higher volatility off very low levels. The equity markets continue to reflect the positive backdrop of growing earnings and a potential lowering of interest rates. Our focus will continue to be at the company level, with an emphasis on seeking to invest in companies with secular tailwinds or strong product-driven cycles.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC (Aristotle Atlantic) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Atlantic makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Atlantic reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Atlantic’s Core Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Atlantic does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Aristotle Atlantic Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Atlantic, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. AAP-2407-13
Performance Disclosures
Sources: CAPS Composite Hub, Russell Investments
Composite returns for all periods ended June 30, 2024 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
The Aristotle Core Equity Composite has an inception date of August 1, 2013 at a predecessor firm. During this time, Mr. Fitzpatrick had primary responsibility for managing the strategy. Performance starting November 1, 2016 was achieved at Aristotle Atlantic.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Index Disclosures
The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. This index has been selected as the benchmark and is used for comparison purposes only. The Russell 1000® Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The Russell 2000®Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. While stock selection is not governed by quantitative rules, a stock typically is added only if the company has an excellent reputation, demonstrates sustained growth and is of interest to a large number of investors. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices.
U.S. corporate credit markets delivered mixed performance in the second quarter, as U.S. yields rose and credit spreads widened marginally. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index eked out a small gain of 0.07% during the quarter but remained in negative territory for the year with a return of -0.71% in the first half. Bank loans continued to outperform both high yield bonds and investment grade corporate bonds with the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index gaining 1.87% during the quarter, bringing its year-to-date return to 4.44%. High yield bonds also gained ground during the period, returning 1.09% during the quarter and 2.58% in the first half, as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index. Conversely, investment grade corporate bonds continued to struggle as longer duration bonds underperformed, with the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index returning -0.09% during the quarter and -0.49% in the first six months of the year.
U.S. equity markets continued to advance, as the “Magnificent 7” helped to push the S&P 500 Index to a new all-time high, with a total return of 4.28% in the quarter and 15.29% in the first half of 2024. Economic data released during the second quarter revealed slowing growth and modestly easing inflation. First quarter GDP showed the economy expanding at an annual rate of 1.4%, well below the 3.4% rate seen in the fourth quarter of 2023. Nonetheless, the U.S. labor market remained resilient with nonfarm payrolls beating expectations in May, although the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%, the highest level since January 2022. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation eased slightly, as annual CPI fell to 3.3% in May, the lowest since February.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady in the second quarter leaving its benchmark rate unchanged for the seventh consecutive meeting in June. According to the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the committee now expects only 25 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 and nudged up median rate projections over the next few years. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged the solid pace of U.S. economic activity, a strong job market and easing inflation, but emphasized inflation remains elevated, and the Fed needs to see further progress on inflation before cutting rates. Elsewhere, the U.S. presidential campaign began in earnest and will likely garner further attention ahead of the November election.
Market Environment
U.S. Treasuries ended the quarter modestly weaker, with yields rising across the curve. The yield on the U.S. 2-year note climbed roughly 13 basis points during the quarter, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year note rose nearly 19 basis points. While the yield curve steepened marginally during the quarter, the spread between the yield on the 2-year and 10-year notes remained inverted for the 24th consecutive month, extending the longest such inversion in history. Despite moderating over the past two months after peaking in April, yields rose by more than 50 basis points across the curve in the first half.
Corporate credit spreads ended the quarter modestly wider after falling to the tightest levels in over two years in early April. High yield bond spreads ended the quarter approximately 10 basis points wider, as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index, while investment grade corporate bond spreads widened roughly 4 basis points, as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index.
U.S. corporate credit issuance remained strong, with refinancing continuing to drive the bulk of issuance. High yield bond supply totaled nearly $78 billion in the quarter, which was modestly slower than the prior quarter but almost double the total from the second quarter of 2023. Leveraged loan supply continued at a torrid pace, totaling roughly $385 billion during the quarter, more than 20% higher than the first quarter and more than quadruple the same period last year. Investment grade corporate issuance moderated after the first quarter’s record sum, but topped $300 billion, which brought issuance in the first half to more than $800 billion, nearly 20% higher than the first half of 2023.
Following a strong first quarter, high yield bond and leveraged loan funds continued to see inflows during the second quarter. High yield bond fund inflows topped $800 million in a choppy quarter, with more than $5.2 billion in outflows in April followed by steady inflows in both May and June. Leveraged loan fund inflows totaled roughly $7.8 billion during the period, compared to an outflow of nearly $8 billion in the second quarter of 2023. Leveraged loans were bolstered by robust collateralized loan obligation (CLO) demand, with CLO volume topping $52 billion ex-refi/resets during the quarter, more than twice the total from the same period last year. Investment grade corporate bond funds also saw solid inflows, with more than $35 billion of inflows during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to over $90 billion.
Within the high yield bond market, higher-quality bonds gained ground in the quarter, as ‘BB’s (+1.32%) outperformed ‘B’s (+1.03%) and ‘CCC’s (-0.01%). From an industry perspective, within the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index, Pharmaceuticals (+10.16%), Brokerage (+2.30%) and Financials (+2.17%) outperformed, while Cable & Satellite (-2.00%), Telecommunications (-1.55%) and Media & Entertainment (-1.53%) continued to underperform.
Defaults and distressed exchanges moderated in the second quarter. The 12-month trailing, par-weighted U.S. high yield default rate, including distressed exchanges, declined roughly 80 basis points to end the quarter at 1.79% (1.17%, excluding distressed exchanges), more than 1.50% below its long-term historical average. Meanwhile, the loan par-weighted default rate, including distressed exchanges, fell roughly 42 basis points to end June at 3.10% (1.09%, excluding distressed exchanges), roughly in line with its long-term historical average.
Performance and Attribution Summary
High Yield Bond
The Aristotle High Yield Bond Composite returned 1.55% gross of fees (1.49% net of fees) in the second quarter, outperforming the 1.22% return of the ICE BofA BB-B U.S. Cash Pay High Yield Constrained Index. Security selection was the primary contributor to relative performance. Industry allocation also contributed to relative performance, while sector rotation had a neutral effect. There were no offsetting detractors.
Security selection contributed to relative performance led by holdings in Cable & Satellite and Finance Companies. This was partially offset by selection in Pharmaceuticals and Pipelines & Distributors. Industry allocation also contributed to relative performance led by an underweight in Cable & Satellite and an overweight in Finance Companies. This was partially offset by underweights in Technology and Healthcare. Sector rotation had a neutral effect on relative performance, as the allocation to investment grade corporate bonds was offset by the allocation to bank loans.
Top Five Contributors
Top Five Detractors
Cablevision
Bausch Health
Air Lease
Ferrellgas Partners
Icahn Enterprises
AmeriGas Partners
Energy Transfer
Titan International
Next Alt SARL
Rakuten
*Bold securities held in representative account
Short Duration High Yield Bond
The Aristotle Short Duration High Yield Bond Composite returned 1.42% pure gross of fees (1.29% net of fees) in the second quarter, compared to the 1.38% return of the ICE BofA 1-3 Year BB-B U.S. Cash Pay Fixed Maturity High Yield Constrained Index. Sector rotation was the primary detractor from relative performance, while industry allocation was the primary contributor to relative performance.
Sector rotation detracted from relative performance led by the allocation to investment grade corporate bonds. There were no offsetting contributors. Security selection also detracted modestly from relative performance led by holdings in Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare. This was mostly offset by selection in Finance Companies and Pipelines & Distributors. Conversely, industry allocation contributed to relative performance led by an overweight in Pharmaceuticals and an underweight in Cable & Satellite. This was partially offset by an underweight in Technology and an overweight in Pipelines & Distributors.
Top Five Contributors
Top Five Detractors
Level 3 Financing
Bausch Health
Petrofac
Staples
Icahn Enterprises
Gray Television
Hertz
Rakuten
New Fortress Energy
U.S. Acute Care Solutions
*Bold securities held in representative account
Outlook
While our overall outlook for U.S. corporate credit markets remains largely unchanged compared to the end of the first quarter, we are beginning to see more dispersion across financial markets as economic growth slows and persistently elevated interest rates impact certain areas of the economy. Nonetheless, we believe underlying fundamentals remain supportive overall, while all-in yields are still relatively attractive. We continue to focus on higher-quality companies in industries with supportive tailwinds as we enter the second half of the year.
The macroeconomic outlook has become more balanced over the past few months, as U.S. economic activity has shown signs of slowing despite a healthy labor market and continued support from fiscal spending. While U.S. consumer spending remains relatively healthy in the aggregate, consumer sentiment declined steadily during the quarter, as the divide between higher-end consumers and the rest continues to widen. Globally, the U.S. economy is still the cleanest dirty shirt, as the economies of Europe and China have been unable to gain momentum in the first half of the year. Nonetheless, while U.S. financial markets remained strong on the surface, underlying performance diverged significantly between the largest companies and the rest of the market. We see the possibility of a bumpier road ahead as risks inherently increase when the economy and financial markets rely on narrower leadership to support overall growth.
While inflation has shown signs of easing in recent months, it remains above the Fed’s target and, as a result, market expectations for future interest rate cuts have been pared back dramatically in the first half of the year. The Fed last hiked rates at its July 2023 meeting, and the current pause is likely to continue for at least a few more months. Despite global central banks (e.g., Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank) beginning to ease in the second quarter, the Fed remains cautious of cutting rates too soon and sparking a reacceleration in inflation. While the next move is almost inevitably lower, barring a major slowdown, we believe the path will be more gradual and shallower than the market expected just a few months ago. Therefore, we remain cautious on rate-sensitive areas of the economy, where we see risks continuing to build.
We believe corporate balance sheets remain strong overall, although we are seeing a divergence between higher-quality companies with prudent management teams and smaller firms with significant leverage and higher funding costs. Corporate earnings have remained strong, but the hurdle has only increased and we have begun to see the market punish earnings misses in recent months. We expect to see further difficult debt refinancings for companies with more highly levered capital structures, especially those in secularly declining industries, and we remain cautious of companies with more shareholder-friendly policies. Conversely, we continue to favor what we believe to be higher-quality, larger companies with management teams that have been proactive in shoring up their balance sheets to prepare for potentially slower growth, but we also acknowledge that valuations have become quite compressed. In this segment of the market, we expect spreads to remain rangebound but continue to seek opportunities for relatively attractive all-in yields.
In our view, the overall market narrative continues to be dominated by a few major themes, such as artificial intelligence (AI), re-shoring/near-shoring of U.S. manufacturing and the resilient higher-end U.S. consumer. These themes have been apparent for some time, so any shifts to this narrative pose a potential risk. Furthermore, with geopolitical risks rising and uncertainty likely to increase ahead of the U.S. elections, we believe there is less room for error going forward. As a result, we continue to favor companies with sound capital structures in the higher-quality segment of the high yield bond market, where we see relatively attractive income opportunities relative to recent history and the potential for positive total returns.
High Yield Bond Positioning
In our high yield bond portfolios, we have continued to increase exposure to higher-quality credits in the short-to-intermediate part of the curve, while favoring companies with a domestic (U.S.) focus. We remain focused on fundamental, bottom-up credit selection in segments of the market that we believe should outperform in an environment of slowing growth and elevated risks.
Compared to the prior quarter, we kept duration exposure largely unchanged and continue to see opportunities in the belly of the curve that may benefit from a steeper yield curve. Additionally, we increased exposure to ‘BB’-rated credits relative to the benchmark and are looking to opportunistically add exposure to ‘BBB’-rated credits trading with wider spreads. Despite risk-on sentiment over the past few months, we believe it is notable to see higher-quality credits beginning to outperform. As the potential Fed rate cuts get pushed further into the future, the market is coming around to the major refinancing risks facing some of the lower-quality companies in industries facing secular decline. While this may eventually present opportunities, we do not see favorable risk-reward in bottom-fishing in these parts of the market yet.
From an industry perspective, we remain focused on themes we believe should act as a tailwind for specific industries. While we continue to see certain Lodging & Leisure, Retailers & Restaurants and Transportation companies benefitting from a robust higher-end consumer, we have modestly reduced overweights. We also remain overweight certain Energy credits that we believe should benefit from elevated data center power demand from AI. Conversely, we maintained underweights in Cable & Satellite and Telecommunications, where we see persistent elevated rates continuing to weigh on highly levered credits. At the end of the quarter, we held overweights in Energy, Transportation and Retailers & Restaurants alongside underweights in Technology, Telecommunications and Chemicals.
Disclosures
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. There are risks specifically associated with fixed income investments such as interest rate risk and credit risk. Bond values fluctuate in price in response to market conditions. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. This risk may be more pronounced for bonds with longer-term maturities. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments. High yield securities are generally rated lower than investment grade securities and may be subject to greater market fluctuations, increased price volatility, risk of issuer default, less liquidity, or loss of income and principal compared to investment grade securities.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Credit does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Credit Partners, LLC (Aristotle Credit) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report are or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Credit makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Credit High Yield Bond strategy and the Aristotle Credit Short Duration High Yield Bond strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Credit reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. For a full list of all recommendations made by Aristotle Credit during the last 12 months, please contact us at (949) 681-2100. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
High Yield Bond Returns: Composite and benchmark returns reflect the reinvestment of income. Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Short Duration High Yield Bond Returns – Pure Gross: Pure gross returns do not reflect the deduction of any trading costs, fees or expenses. Pure gross returns prior to September 2017 reflect the deduction of transaction costs. Model Net Performance: Starting from September 2017, composite returns are presented pure gross and net of the highest wrap fee stated. Performance for periods prior to September 2017 are presented pure gross and net of actual investment advisory fees.
Aristotle Credit Partners, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Credit, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACP-2407-4
Performance Disclosures
Sources: SS&C Advent; ICE BofA
*Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
**2014 is a partial-year period of nine months, representing data from April 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014.
***2009 is a partial-year period of ten months, representing data from March 1, 2009 to December 31, 2009.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. The Aristotle High Yield Bond strategy has an inception date of April 1, 2014; however, the strategy initially began at Douglas Lopez’s predecessor firm. A supplemental performance track record from March 1, 2009 to December 31, 2013 (Mr. Lopez’s departure from the firm) is provided. The returns are based on a separate account from the strategy while it was being managed at Doug Lopez’s predecessor firm and performance results are based on custodian data. During this time, Mr. Lopez had primary responsibility for managing the account. Please refer to disclosures at the end of this document.
Sources: SS&C Advent; ICE BofA
*Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
**2014 is a partial-year period of nine months, representing data from April 1, 2014 to December 31, 2014.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Composite and benchmark returns reflect the reinvestment of income. Pure Gross: Pure gross returns do not reflect the deduction of any trading costs, fees or expenses. Pure gross returns prior to September 2017 reflect the deduction of transaction costs. Model Net Performance: Starting from September 2017, composite returns are presented pure gross and net of the highest wrap fee stated. Performance for periods prior to September 2017 are presented pure gross and net of actual investment advisory fees. Please refer to disclosures at the end of this document.
Index Disclosures
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad base, market capitalization-weighted bond market index representing intermediate term investment grade bonds traded in the United States. The Index is frequently used as a stand-in for measuring the performance of the U.S. bond market. In addition to investment grade corporate debt, the Index tracks government debt, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and asset-backed securities (ABS) to simulate the universe of investable bonds that meet certain criteria. In order to be included in the Index, bonds must be of investment grade or higher, have an outstanding par value of at least $100 million and have at least one year until maturity. The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes securities publicly issued by U.S. and non-U.S. industrial, utility and financial issuers that are all U.S. dollar denominated. The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index is a component of the Bloomberg U.S. Credit Bond Index. The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the U.S. dollar-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded. The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. It is market cap weighted and includes 500 leading companies, capturing approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. The ICE Bank of America (ICE BofA) BB-B U.S. Cash Pay High Yield Constrained Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar-denominated BB-rated and B-rated corporate debt issued in the U.S. domestic market, a fixed coupon schedule and a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million, issued publicly. Allocations to an individual issuer in the Index will not exceed 2%. The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index is a market-weighted index designed to track the performance of the investable universe of the U.S. dollar-denominated leveraged loan market. The ICE Bank of America (ICE BofA) 1-3 Year BB-B U.S. Cash Pay Fixed Maturity High Yield Constrained Index tracks the performance of the U.S. dollar-denominated below investment grade corporate debt, currently in a coupon paying period, that is publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market; including 144A securities, both with and without registration rights. Qualifying securities must have risk exposure to countries are members of the FX-G10, Western Europe, or territories of the United States and Western Europe. The FX-G10 includes all Euro members: the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden. Qualifying securities include only those rated BB1 through B3. Perpetual securities are not included as all securities must have a fixed final maturity date. All final maturity dates must range between one and three years. It is a capitalization-weighted index, constrained to 2% maximum weighting per issuer. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The volatility (beta) of the Composites may be greater or less than the indices. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices. Composite and index returns reflect the reinvestment of income.
SMID caps gave back some of their first quarter gains with the Russell 2500 index delivering a total return of -4.27%. Potential slowing in the US economy weighed on investor sentiment but lent credence to a soft landing scenario in 2024. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) drifted lower during the quarter, coming in below expectations at 3.0% as inflationary pressures have eased. Employment was muddled during the period as non-farm payroll growth was positive but volatile while unemployment steadily climbed to 4.1%. Despite softening data, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held its ground on easing, at its June meeting, forecasting only one Fed funds rate cut in 2024, down from 3 cuts from its March meeting. The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened with the yield on the 10-year note rising 16 basis points (bps) to end June at 4.36%.
Stylistically, growth stocks outperformed their value counterparts during the quarter as evidenced by the Russell 2500 Growth Index returning -4.22% compared to -4.31% for the Russell 2500 Value Index. Two of the largest names in the growth index for the first quarter, Super Micro and MicroStrategy, were the worst performers in the second quarter. Whether the underperformance was a function of decreasing AI enthusiasm or selling in advance of the two companies graduating to the larger Russell 1000 Index, it’s fair to say that the concentration and performance impact from both companies will be discussed by active SMID cap managers and academics for years to come. Pockets of exuberance can still be seen in the SMID cap universe as noted by the fact that Carvana, a volatile used car selling platform that had completed a distressed debt exchange in the fall of 2023, was a top contributor in the Russell 2500 Value and Growth indices.
At the sector level, only one of the eleven sectors in the Russell 2500 Index recorded positive returns during the second quarter, led by the Utilities (+6.17%), Consumer Staples (-1.41%), and Real Estate (-1.43%) sectors. Conversely, Consumer Discretionary (-7.18%), Industrials (-6.53%), and Materials (-6.50%) all lagged. Looking at market factors, profitable companies outperformed loss makers for the third time in the past four quarters.
Sources: CAPS Composite Hub, Russell Investments Past performance is not indicative of future results. Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Small Cap Equity Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Performance Review
For the second quarter of 2024, the Aristotle Small/Mid Cap Equity Composite generated a total return of -1.83 % net of fees (-1.69 % gross of fees), outperforming the -4.27% total return of the Russell 2500 Index. Outperformance was primarily driven by security selection while allocation effects also contributed. Overall, security selection was strongest in the Industrials, Financials, and Information Technology sectors and weakest in Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Real Estate. From an allocation perspective, the portfolio benefited from an underweight in Consumer Discretionary and an overweight in Information Technology, however, this was partially offset by an underweight in Real Estate and an overweight in Industrials.
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Dycom Industries
Carter’s
MACOM Technology Solutions
Charles River Laboratories
Baldwin Insurance Group
Supernus Pharmaceuticals
Merit Medical Systems
Acadia Healthcare
ACI Worldwide
ASGN
CONTRIBUTORS
Dycom Industries (DY), a provider of engineering and construction services to the telecommunications and cable television industries, benefitted from continued growth in its core business, funding tailwinds, and expanding margins as demand for wireline services continues to grow. We maintain a position as we believe the company remains well positioned for longer term growth alongside secular trends for expanding fiber deployments to support faster broadband connectivity speeds and opportunities to deploy fiber to rural or underserved areas across the country.
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI), a designer and manufacturer of high-performance semiconductor products, appreciated amid strength within its Defense and Telecom segments. We maintain our position, as we believe the company’s meaningful exposure to growing demand from Data Center and 5G end market applications along with the integration of recent acquisitions should drive additional shareholder value in periods to come.
DETRACTORS
Carter’s (CRI), a leading marketer of baby and young children’s apparel in North America, declined amid a cautious consumer spending environment and weak direct-to-consumer trends for the business during the quarter. We maintain our position as we believe the company has a strong brand in a stable category and that store rationalization efforts and an improving demographic backdrop can drive a sales recovery in the business in periods to come.
Charles River Laboratories (CRL), a clinical testing, research, and manufacturing provider for the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology industry, declined despite beating fiscal first-quarter earnings as cautious client spending weighed on the revenue growth and the near-term outlook. We maintain our position as we believe the company is well positioned to benefit from the established trend of outsourcing drug discovery and early-stage development functions.
Recent Portfolio Activity
Buys/Acquisitions
Sells/Liquidations
Chart Industries
AZZ
Littelfuse
Newell Brands
PowerSchool
BUYS/ACQUISITIONS
Chart Industries (GTLS), an industrial equipment manufacturer that provides cryogenic equipment for storage, distribution and other processes within the industrial gas and LNG, hydrogen, helium, carbon capture and water treatment industries was added to the portfolio. Strong forward demand for LNG and accelerating hydrogen opportunities coupled with company-specific improvement initiatives should benefit the company moving forward.
Littelfuse (LFUS), a designer and manufacturer of circuit protection, power control, and sensing products for the automotive, industrial, medical, and consumer end markets, was added to the portfolio. We believe the company’s dominant position in circuit protection and growing presence in automotive sensors and power semiconductors/components should benefit from ongoing efforts to solve power control and connection problems between the digital and physical worlds.
SELLS/LIQUIDATIONS
AZZ (AZZ), a provider of hot dip galvanizing and coil coating solutions, was sold during the quarter as the company’s stock price appreciated significantly since our initial purchase causing the reward to risk ratio to compress.
Newell Brands (NWL), a global consumer goods company was sold due to deteriorating fundamentals exacerbated by inflationary pressures creating a leveraged balance sheet that would take too much time to repair.
PowerSchool (PWSC), a leading provider of cloud-based software for K-12 education in North America, was removed from the portfolio following the announcement the company was being taken private by investment firm Bain Capital.
Outlook
We continue to remain optimistic about the long-term potential for the SMID-cap segment of the U.S. market as valuations and potential tailwinds bode well for the asset class. As we look out to the second half of 2024, we are cautiously constructive as encouraging signs of economic stability are balanced by now consensus expectations of a soft landing scenario and the pricing of risk. So, despite greater clarity over the Fed’s path from here, there remains a long list of items creating uncertainty that could lead to greater volatility in 2024 including, but not limited to, signs that inflationary pressures have not yet fully dissipated, geopolitical tensions, U.S. equity index concentration issues, ongoing commercial real estate and regional banking concerns, and the looming presidential election. We are well aware that most of these issues are well known, but the timing and magnitude of the impact of any and all of these issues remains unpredictable. Therefore, as we always have, we will continue to avoid the temptation to forecast their outcome in favor of assessing the potential impact from a range of potential outcomes within our company‐specific, bottom-up analysis, and quality focus.
From an asset class perspective, valuations of SMID versus large continue to remain near multi-decade lows, which we believe suggests a more favorable setup for SMID caps relative to large caps in the periods to come (16.3x P/E for the Russell 2500 Index vs. 24.8x P/E for the Russell 1000 Index). Against a backdrop of moderating inflation, normalized interest rates, and a still growing U.S. economy, it looks to us that small and mid caps stretch of underperformance has the potential to end. In the event that the economy continues to stabilize, our view is that valuations are likely to rise for those businesses that have largely sat out the mega cap performance regime. It also helps that the well-noted concentration in large caps is reaching 50-year highs and SMID cap valuation relative to large cap is at multi-decade lows, therefore any fundamentally driven repositioning is likely to benefit SMID caps more than larger companies, in our view. Lastly, we believe SMID caps remain better positioned to benefit from the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing, a pickup in M&A activity, the CHIPS Act, and several infrastructure projects on the horizon.
Positioning
Our current positioning is a function of our bottom-up security selection process and our ability to identify what we view as attractive investment candidates, regardless of economic sector definitions. Overweights in Industrials and Information Technology are mostly a function of our underlying company specific views rather than any top-down predictions for each sector. Conversely, we continue to be underweight in Consumer Discretionary, as we have been unable to identify what we consider to be compelling long-term opportunities that fit our discipline given the rising risk profiles of many retail businesses and a potential deceleration in goods spending following a period of strength. We also continue to be underweight in Real Estate as a result of structural challenges for various end markets within the sector. Given our focus on long-term business fundamentals, patient investment approach and low portfolio turnover, the strategy’s sector positioning generally does not change significantly from quarter to quarter. However, we may take advantage of periods of volatility by adding selectively to certain companies when appropriate.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC (Aristotle Boston) and are subject to change without notice.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided in this report should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Boston’s Small/Mid Cap Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions Aristotle Boston makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities discussed herein. Aristotle Boston reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
As of December 31, 2014, there were no non-fee-paying accounts in the Composite.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs.
These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments.
The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass.
Aristotle Capital Boston, LLC is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Boston, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACB-2407-13
Performance Disclosures
Sources: CAPS Composite Hub, Russell Investments
Composite returns for periods ended June 30, 2024, are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
*The Aristotle Small/Mid Cap Equity Composite has an inception date of January 1, 2008 at a predecessor firm. During this time, Jack McPherson and Dave Adams had primary responsibility for managing the strategy. Performance starting January 1, 2015 was achieved at Aristotle Boston.
As of December 31, 2014, there were no non-fee-paying accounts in the Composite Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Please see important disclosures enclosed within this document.
Index Disclosures
The Russell 2500 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2500 Growth® Index measures the performance of the small/mid cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a growth probability. The Russell 2500 Value® Index measures the performance of the small/mid cap companies located in the United States that also exhibit a value probability. The Russell 1000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index, representing approximately 90% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 1,000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market capitalization and current index membership. The volatility (beta) of the composite may be greater or less than the benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
(All MSCI index returns are shown net and in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.)
Markets Review
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle International Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Capital Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Global equity markets were mixed during the second quarter. Overall, the MSCI ACWI Index rose 2.87% during the period. Concurrently, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index fell 1.10%. In terms of style, value stocks underperformed their growth counterparts during the quarter, with the MSCI ACWI Value Index trailing the MSCI ACWI Growth Index by 6.79%.
The MSCI EAFE Index fell 0.42% during the second quarter, while the MSCI ACWI ex USA Index increased 0.96%. Within the MSCI EAFE Index, Asia was the largest detractor, while the U.K. gained the most. On a sector basis, five of the eleven sectors within the MSCI EAFE Index posted negative returns, with Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Materials recording the largest losses. Conversely, Health Care, Financials and Energy performed the best.
The global economy remained resilient, with the IMF estimating global growth to remain steady at 3.2% as inflation converges toward targeted levels. The U.K. hit the 2.0% annual inflation target in May, while the eurozone and U.S. were close behind at 2.6% and 3.3%, respectively. Given the improved inflation outlook, the European Central Bank announced its first rate cut in almost five years, lowering its key rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. However, the U.K. and U.S. left rates unchanged, citing lingering economic uncertainty and the need for greater confidence that lower levels of inflation would be sustainable.
In Asia, after making a historic change in monetary policy in March, Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.0% to 0.1% and announced an upcoming plan to unwind its $5 trillion balance sheet. However, with the yen hitting a 34-year low in April, Governor Kazuo Ueda did not rule out an additional rate hike in July. Meanwhile, China also kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged, highlighting the PBOC’s limited policy options as the economy struggles to recover.
In geopolitics, tensions remained high, as Hamas rejected the U.S.-led ceasefire proposal and Israel continued attacks in central and southern Gaza. Conflict between Israel and Hezbollah continued, prompting concerns from U.S. Defenese Secretary Lloyd Austin that heightened activity between the two groups could escalate into a regional war. In Ukraine, conditions in northern Kharkiv stabilized after Russia’s offensive in May, aided by additional weapons and permissions provided by Ukraine’s Western allies. However, a new Russian front line in the north and pressure in the east continues to stretch Ukrainian forces, leading to more civilian deaths. Lastly, trade tensions between the U.S. and China flared, as President Biden announced an increase in tarrifs on $18 billion of Chinese imports.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the second quarter of 2024, Aristotle Capital’s International Equity Composite posted a total return of -0.85% gross of fees (-0.96% net of fees), underperforming the MSCI EAFE Index, which returned -0.42%, and the MSCI ACWI ex USA Index, which returned 0.96%. Please refer to the table below for detailed performance.
Performance (%)
2Q24
YTD
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Since Inception*
International Equity Composite (gross)
-0.85
2.89
8.46
1.03
5.89
4.85
5.64
International Equity Composite (net)
-0.96
2.66
7.97
0.56
5.39
4.35
5.14
MSCI EAFE Index (net)
-0.42
5.34
11.54
2.89
6.46
4.33
3.00
MSCI ACWI ex USA Index (net)
0.96
5.69
11.62
0.46
5.54
3.84
2.62
*The inception date for the International Equity Composite is January 1, 2008. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle International Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Capital Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Source: FactSet Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income.
From a sector perspective, the portfolio’s underperformance relative to the MSCI EAFE Index can be attributed to both allocation effects and security selection. Security selection in Information Technology and Communication Services as well as an overweight in Consumer Discretionary detracted the most from the portfolio’s relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Consumer Staples, Energy and Financials contributed to relative return.
Regionally, security selection was responsible for the portfolio’s underperformance, while allocation effects had a positive impact. Security selection in the U.K. detracted the most from relative performance, while an underweight and security selection in Asia contributed.
Contributors and Detractors for 2Q 2024
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Cameco
Accenture
DBS Group
Magna International
Erste Group Bank
Pan Pacific International
Munich Reinsurance
AkzoNobel
Alcon
LVMH
Accenture, the global IT services and consulting firm, was the largest detractor during the quarter. The broader consulting industry has seen a softening of demand as corporate clients have reined in spending amid higher interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty. While we understand the cyclical nature of the industry, with Accenture’s revenue down just 1% year-over-year, we believe the recent pressure on the company’s share price to be overdone. Bookings have remained strong in the first half of the year, especially for large deals, while generative AI sales surpassed $2 billion for the same period. Accenture’s end-to-end services, functional and geographic scale, industry expertise, and integration within client systems make it uniquely able to perform the large-scale digital transformations its corporate customers’ demand. Moreover, we believe Accenture’s breadth of research and development resources make it well positioned to continue to provide solutions and deepen its partnerships with many of the world’s largest companies as they respond to and seek to implement constantly evolving technologies (including generative AI).
Magna International, a Canada‐based global auto parts, systems and assembly company, was one of the largest detractors for the period. The company lowered its 2024 sales guidance, having seen a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) adoption across its customer base and expecting a halt in Fisker Ocean production. Despite concerns over automakers delaying EV rollouts, we continue to believe in the longer-term investment catalysts for Magna. These include the company’s ability to enhance margins from operational improvements and leverage its distinctive capabilities to supply parts for an increasingly electrified and autonomous fleet of vehicles. Magna specializes in lightweighting—a necessity for heavy internal combustion engines and electric vehicles—and has made years of investments in self-driving technologies. In addition, with leading market share positions in many of its core markets and products, we believe Magna remains well positioned to benefit as content‐per‐vehicle increases and automotive parts and systems become more complex.
Cameco, one of the world’s largest publicly traded uranium producers, was the top contributor during the period.Support from governments and policymakers for nuclear energy has continued to increase in 2024 as countries realize it can play a crucial role in both promoting energy security and lowering dependence on fossil fuels to meet environmental goals. With higher demand for uranium across the world, Cameco’s production was up more than 25% year-over-year, and its long-term supply contracts have increased (annual commitments now standing at 28 million pounds per year through 2028). We view these fundamental improvements as further proof Cameco is making progress on our catalyst of increasing its uranium volume sold at higher prices, all while lowering production costs through scale and its access to some of the highest-grade ore on the planet. In addition, we believe the company’s continued integration of Westinghouse Electric Company’s market-leading downstream capabilities will allow it to offer a highly competitive nuclear fuel solution. In our opinion, this puts Cameco on track to enjoy higher levels of FREE cash flow and the ability to de-risk its balance sheet as it meets global energy needs.
DBS Group, Singapore’s largest bank1,was a leading contributor. The bank reported strong results, with net interest margins (NIMs) expanding due to the higher-for-longer rate environment and net fee income surpassing $1 billion for the first time. We view these improvements as evidence DBS is executing on previously identified catalysts, including market share gains in wealth management and profitable expansion outside of Singapore. As such, wealth management fees were up ~47% year-over-year as the unit experienced inflows, as well as continued growth in AUM. A large portion of this increase was supported by its 2023 acquisition of Citigroup’s consumer banking business in Taiwan. We continue to admire DBS’s leadership in digital banking and believe it will allow the company to drive further efficiency gains, improve the customer experience, and increase its footprint and penetration both domestically and across Asia.
1As measured by assets as of June 30, 2024.
Recent Portfolio Activity
Buys
Sells
Roche
Novartis
During the quarter, we sold our position in Novartis and invested the proceeds in Roche.
We have been investors in the Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis for over a decade, having first purchased shares in 2011. During our holding period, the company has undergone significant changes. Vasant (“Vas”) Narasimhan was promoted to CEO in 2018 and, we believe, has positively influenced the company’s culture and helped shift the business more toward innovative medicines. Examples include the sale of Novartis’s consumer (over-the-counter) joint venture; the divestiture of its vaccines and animal health businesses; the spinoff of Alcon, a global leader in the treatment of eye diseases and eye conditions (also an International Equity holding); and most recently, the spinoff of generics manufacturer Sandoz. As part of its portfolio transformation, Novartis has been able to improve its margins and gain share of branded pharmaceuticals. With many catalysts having neared completion, we decided to sell Novartis to fund the purchase of what we believe is a more optimal investment in Roche.
Roche Holding AG
Founded in 1896 and headquartered in Switzerland, Roche is one of the world’s largest biotechnology and diagnostics companies. The company produced over CHF 58 billion in revenue in 2023, just under half of which was generated in the United States. Roche’s drugs are used to treat conditions in a variety of areas, including oncology (~43% of pharmaceuticals sales), neuroscience (~19%), immunology (~14%), hemophilia (~9%) and others (~15%). The company is also the leading provider of in-vitro diagnostics, with approximately 20% global market share.
Roche’s scale and unique structure, having both a pharmaceutical portfolio (~75% of group revenue) and a diagnostics business (~25%), positions it as a pioneer in personalized healthcare. This evolving field uses diagnostic tests to determine which treatments will work best for patients. Approximately two-thirds of Roche’s R&D projects focus on combining targeted therapies with companion diagnostics.
High-Quality Business
Some of the quality characteristics we have identified for Roche include:
Long and proven history in the research and development of innovative medicines;
Economies of scale allow for cost advantages, with more than 29 billion diagnostic tests delivered and millions of patients treated with Roche medicines in 2023;
Significant expertise in creating molecularly targeted therapies, particularly to fight cancer; and
Roche’s ability to pair drugs with diagnostics can reduce up-front investments, shorten development timelines and boost the commercial potential of new products.
Attractive Valutaion
We believe increased sales of certain products will lead to higher levels of FREE cash flow than are currently appreciated by the market. Considering Roche’s ~4% dividend yield and our projections of higher future earnings, we view the company to be attractively valued with a normalized P/E of ~14x. We estimate this provides an approximately 30% upside to the share price at time of purchase.
Compelling Catalysts
Catalysts we have identified for Roche, which we believe will cause its stock price to appreciate over our three- to five-year investment horizon, include:
Continued market share gains within oncology, including for Perjeta to treat breast cancer, Tecentriq for lung cancer, Venclexta for blood cancer and others;
Increased penetration of Hemlibra for hemophilia and Ocrevus for multiple sclerosis;
Further recognition of value and incremental use cases for portions of the diagnostics division; and
Potential Future Catalysts: Pipeline of possible blockbuster developments, such as Roche’s Brainshuttle technology used to deliver antibodies to treat neurological diseases, could become catalysts. While the pipeline assets are not (yet) reflected in our estimate of intrinsic value, at present we view these assets as “free options.”
Conclusion
As economic data points fluctuate from quarter to quarter and the macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, we focus on individual businesses. This quarter we highlighted some of the unique characteristics of Roche which, we believe, afford the company a competitive advantage relative to peers. Rather than attempt to predict central bank policy, GDP, or elections, we will continue to identify and study what we deem to be high-quality companies. It is our core belief that the fundamentals of a business are the most important determinates of its long-term worth.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Capital makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle International Equity strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Capital reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Capital’s International Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Aristotle Capital Management, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2407-32
Performance Disclosures
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, MSCI
Composite returns for all periods ended June 30, 2024 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security or product. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Index Disclosures
The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the United States and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The MSCI ACWI captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 developed market countries and 24 emerging markets countries. With approximately 2,800 constituents, the Index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. The MSCI ACWI Growth Index captures large and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall growth style characteristics across 23 developed markets countries and 24 emerging markets countries. The MSCI ACWI Value Index captures large and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics across 23 developed markets countries and 24 emerging markets countries. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed markets countries (excluding the United States) and 24 emerging markets countries. With approximately 2,200 constituents, the Index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the United States. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 24 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Brent Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Japanese market. With approximately 200 constituents, the Index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from 28 local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers. The MSCI United Kingdom Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the U.K. market. With nearly 100 constituents, the Index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the United Kingdom. The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 15 developed markets countries in Europe. With approximately 400 constituents, the Index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the European developed markets equity universe. These indexes have been selected as the benchmarks and are used for comparison purposes only. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than the respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indexes.
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Bloomberg Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Value Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Capital Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
The U.S. equity market achieved record highs, as the S&P 500 Index rose 4.28% during the period. Gains were once again driven by the “Magnificent 7.” This narrow group of stocks was responsible for all of the S&P 500’s return during the quarter. Concurrently, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.07% for the quarter. In terms of style, the Russell 1000 Value Index underperformed its growth counterpart by 10.50%.
The performance of the Russell 1000 Value Index was also weak in absolute terms, with nine out of the eleven sectors recording losses. Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Materials were the worst-performing sectors. Meanwhile, Utilities, Consumer Staples and Information Technology were the best.
Data released during the period showed that U.S. economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter from 3.4% in the last quarter of 2023, as consumer spending, exports and government spending decelerated. Meanwhile, CPI inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in April and 3.3% in May. This combination of sluggish economic growth and persistent inflation raised concerns about potential stagflation. However, the U.S. labor market remained strong, with unemployment at 4.0%, and consumer spending continued to grow.
Due to the unchanged macroeconomic landscape, with elevated inflation and a healthy labor market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the benchmark federal funds rate’s targeted range of 5.25% to 5.50% and continued reducing its holdings of Treasury securities. Fed Chair Powell emphasized patience in monetary policy changes and indicated it may take longer than expected to lower rates, as the committee is seeking greater confidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward its 2% target.
Corporate earnings were strong, with S&P 500 companies reporting earnings growth of 6.0% and more companies exceeding EPS estimates compared to the previous quarter. Despite slowing economic growth, fewer companies discussed the potential for a recession on earnings calls, and fewer companies mentioned inflation.
In geopolitics, tensions remained high as President Biden hiked tariffs on $18 billion of imports from China in a bid to protect U.S. workers and businesses. In the Middle East, the U.S. continued efforts to stabilize maritime traffic in the Red Sea while also facing criticism from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who claimed the U.S. was withholding weapons from Israel. The U.S. presidential campaign season also began in earnest, with the first debate between incumbent Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump taking place in June.
Performance and Attribution Summary
For the second quarter of 2024, Aristotle Capital’s Value Equity Composite posted a total return of -1.55% gross of fees (-1.61% net of fees), outperforming the -2.17% return of the Russell 1000 Value Index and underperforming the 4.28% return of the S&P 500 Index. Please refer to the table for detailed performance.
Performance (%)
2Q24
YTD
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Value Equity Composite (gross)
-1.55
5.96
17.62
5.49
12.11
11.46
Value Equity Composite (net)
-1.61
5.83
17.33
5.22
11.82
11.12
Russell 1000 Value Index
-2.17
6.62
13.06
5.52
9.00
8.22
S&P 500 Index
4.28
15.29
24.56
10.00
15.03
12.85
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Aristotle Value Equity Composite returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses. Aristotle Capital Composite returns are preliminary pending final account reconciliation. Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Source: FactSet Past performance is not indicative of future results. Attribution results are based on sector returns which are gross of investment advisory fees. Attribution is based on performance that is gross of investment advisory fees and includes the reinvestment of income.
The portfolio’s outperformance relative to the Russell 1000 Value Index in the second quarter can be attributed to security selection, while allocation effects had a negative impact. Security selection in Information Technology and Health Care and an overweight in Information Technology contributed the most to relative performance. Conversely, security selection in Financials and Materials and an overweight in Consumer Discretionary detracted. (Relative weights are the result of bottom-up security selection.)
Contributors and Detractors for 2Q 2024
Relative Contributors
Relative Detractors
Qualcomm
Lennar
Microsoft
Martin Marietta Materials
Adobe
Parker Hannifin
Amgen
Lowe’s
Alcon
Oshkosh
Qualcomm, a leading wireless communications technology company, was the largest contributor for the quarter.After a period of weaker global demand for smartphones (driven by a slowdown in China) and elevated channel inventory, demand from Chinese handset manufacturers accelerated 40% year-over-year. More importantly, in our opinion, Qualcomm continues to execute on a previously identified catalyst of shifting its business mix beyond smartphones. The company announced increased progress for its automotive and Internet of Things (IoT) solutions. Within auto, the increase in vehicle content has resulted in 35% year-over-year revenue growth, with a design win pipeline of ~$45 billion, keeping the company on track to achieving ~$4 billion in auto-related revenues by 2026. In recent years, despite persistent threats of insourcing from large clients (most notably Apple), Qualcomm has been able to retain its high market share in handsets while simultaneously expanding in non-smartphone devices. We believe this progress is a testament to Qualcomm’s history of high (and productive) R&D spending, resulting in technological superiority. We believe Qualcomm’s technologies will continue to benefit as the world stays on a path toward a proliferation of connectivity between varying devices and as AI applications extend from the cloud to on-device.
Microsoft, a leading technology company specializing in software, hardware, cloud services, AI and digital applications, was one of the largest contributors during the quarter. The company continues to execute on a myriad of catalysts across its businesses, particularly within cloud-based applications like Azure and platform-based services such as LinkedIn. For Azure, Microsoft detailed previously announced partnerships with NVIDIA and AMD to develop first-party silicon chips and custom-designed infrastructure innovations, including its AI accelerator (Azure Maia) and CPU (Azure Cobalt). These advancements are part of Microsoft’s strategy to enhance AI performance and efficiency within the Azure ecosystem. LinkedIn, which has more than doubled its membership to over one billion in the past four years, is expanding its revenue streams across subscriptions and advertising and increasingly disrupting traditional recruiting and training functions. LinkedIn recently passed $16 billion in run rate annual revenue, which is only ~7% of total Microsoft revenue, but if it were a standalone business, it would be in the top half of S&P 500 constituents! The Azure and LinkedIn examples are just two of many that illustrate Microsoft’s ongoing transformation from an operating system to a total technology solutions provider.
Lennar, one of the nation’s largest homebuilders, was the biggest detractor for the quarter. Despite executing on previously identified catalysts, including shifting toward a capital-light business model (i.e., 79% of land controlled via options versus 21% owned, an improvement from 70/30 just one year ago), formal plans for a spinoff of $6 billion to $8 billion of land assets, and monetizing non-core assets such as the recently announced sale of multifamily housing assets, Lennar’s share price declined during the quarter. Management has called out affordability pressures (e.g., higher prices and mortgage rates) as challenges that have pressured gross margins and may continue to do so. Lennar has navigated affordability issues through more efficient operations (i.e., leveraging scale, as well as accelerating and matching production and sales volumes to lower construction costs) and increased incentives, the latter of which we view as unsustainable. As always, we are closely monitoring these cyclical dynamics with an eye to what is truly “normal.” Moreover, we take (some) comfort in Lennar’s excess net cash position and its potential to redeploy capital in the business and/or return cash to shareholders. Lastly, we remain sanguine on the U.S housing market, as well as Lennar’s ability to manage through the inevitable housing cycles.
Oshkosh, a manufacturer of purpose-built vehicles worldwide, was a main detractor during the quarter. Despite a decline in share price, the company has seen fundamental improvements and strong demand for its vehicles, including an increasing backlog of orders for fire trucks. As such, revenue for Oshkosh’s Vocational segment was up over 35% year-over-year. We believe this segment should be able to expand its margins, particularly as the company was awarded a contract to produce the “Next Generation Delivery Vehicle” for the U.S. Postal Service, which should begin to ramp up at the beginning of next year. This contract could generate in excess of $6 billion in revenue for the company. Furthermore, we continue to believe that Oshkosh is a high-quality business that should be able to create innovative equipment and gain market share across segments. This includes its aerial work platforms as global safety standards increase around the world.
Recent Portfolio Activity
Buys
Sells
American Water Works
Crown Castle
Veralto
During the quarter, we sold our positions in Crown Castle and Veralto and invested in American Water Works.
We first invested in Crown Castle, a provider of telecommunications infrastructure (including towers, fiber and small cells), in 2021. During our holding period, tenancy ratios for the company’s tower business increased. However, the company’s fiber and small cell business segments have yet to deliver the expected benefits from the 5G network transition. Additionally, the CEO of Crown Castle stepped down at the end of 2023, influenced by Elliott Investment Management, an activist investor. Concurrently, the company has initiated a strategic and operational review of its fiber segment to determine whether to pursue a turnaround or a complete/partial sale. Given the uncertainty surrounding the company’s business strategy and new management team, we decided to exit the investment. We will continue to monitor the company from the sidelines.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, we received shares of the water and product quality company Veralto when Danaher, a current Value Equity holding, spun off the business. After further assessing the now independently operated Veralto, we decided to exit our position. We believe our other holdings within the water value chain[1], including Xylem, American Water Works (our most recent purchase) and to some extent Ecolab, are more optimal investments.
American Water Works Company, Inc.
Founded in 1886 and headquartered in New Jersey, American Water Works is the largest and most geographically diverse water (~92% of regulated sales) and wastewater (~8%) utility in the United States. The company serves a population of approximately 14 million people across 14 states, with operations that span 53,700 miles of pipe, 540 water treatment plants, 1,200 groundwater wells, 1,700 pumping stations and 74 dams. The company expects to invest between $16 billion and $17 billion from 2024-2028 as it replaces and upgrades infrastructure (often decades old) to improve the efficiency and sustainability of its operations.
High-Quality Business
Some of the quality characteristics we have identified for American Water Works include:
Stable and predictable revenues due to the essential need for water and its structure as a regulated monopoly with long-term service contracts;
A history of growing cash returns to shareholders (~8.0% annualized dividend increases over the past five years);
Economies of scale that provide advantages in pursuing new customers via acquisitions; and
Constructive relationships with regulators that support timely cost recovery and the ability to gain approval for continued investments.
Attractive Valutaion
Based on our estimates of normalized earnings and the company’s targeted 55%-60% dividend payout ratio, we view shares as attractively valued. We believe opportunities for American Water Works to further enhance its revenues and profitability through infrastructure improvements and acquisitions are not fully appreciated by the market.
Compelling Catalysts
Catalysts we have identified for American Water Works, which we believe will cause its stock price to appreciate over our three- to five-year investment horizon, include:
Completion of infrastructure upgrades, including the planned replacement of nearly 2,100 miles of mains and collection pipes between 2024-28, should increase reliability, as well as the value of American Water’s assets, enhancing profit levels permitted by regulators;
Well positioned to further consolidate the highly fragmented water utility industry via acquisitions, as increasing regulation and fiscal challenges may drive more municipalities to sell their water assets; and
Further penetration of wastewater services, which is a small but growing portion of American Water Works’ operations.
Conclusion
As economic data points fluctuate from quarter to quarter and the macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, we focus on individual businesses. This quarter we highlighted some of the unique characteristics of American Water Works which, we believe, afford the company a competitive advantage relative to peers. Rather than attempt to predict Fed policy, GDP, or presidential elections, we will continue to identify and study what we deem to be high-quality companies. It is our core belief that the fundamentals of a business are the most important determinates of its long-term worth.
[1] The water value chain refers to companies that provide services related to the sourcing, treatment, distribution, usage, or disposal of water. The companies mentioned here are the only portfolio holdings within the S&P Global Water Index.
Disclosures
The opinions expressed herein are those of Aristotle Capital Management, LLC (Aristotle Capital) and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. You should not assume that any of the securities transactions, sectors or holdings discussed in this report were or will be profitable, or that recommendations Aristotle Capital makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities listed in this report. The portfolio characteristics shown relate to the Aristotle Value Equity strategy. Not every client’s account will have these characteristics. Aristotle Capital reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and, in the aggregate, may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. The performance attribution presented is of a representative account from Aristotle Capital’s Value Equity Composite. The representative account is a discretionary client account which was chosen to most closely reflect the investment style of the strategy. The criteria used for representative account selection is based on the account’s period of time under management and its similarity of holdings in relation to the strategy. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investments are also subject to political, market, currency and regulatory risks or economic developments. International investments involve special risks that may in particular cause a loss in principal, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small‐ and medium‐sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid. Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole and other types of stocks.
The material is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information and data presented has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Aristotle Capital does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information.
Aristotle Capital Management, LLC is an independent registered investment adviser under the Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aristotle Capital, including our investment strategies, fees and objectives, can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. ACM-2407-11
Performance Disclosures
Sources: CAPS CompositeHubTM, Russell Investments, Standard & Poor’s
Composite returns for all periods ended June 30, 2024 are preliminary pending final account reconciliation.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security or product. Performance results for periods greater than one year have been annualized. The Aristotle Value Equity strategy has an inception date of November 1, 2010; however, the strategy initially began at Mr. Gleicher’s predecessor firm in October 1997. A supplemental performance track record from January 1, 2001 through October 31, 2010 is provided above. The returns are based on two separate accounts and performance results are based on custodian data. During this time, Mr. Gleicher had primary responsibility for managing the two accounts, one account starting in November 2000 and the other December 2000.
Returns are presented gross and net of investment advisory fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross returns will be reduced by fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net returns are presented net of actual investment advisory fees and after the deduction of all trading expenses.
Index Disclosures
The Russell 1000 Value® Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 Index companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values. The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of the large cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The Index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite includes over 3,000 companies, more than most other stock market indexes. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. The WTI Crude Oil Index is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil consumed in the United States. The 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department with a maturity of three months. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The volatility (beta) of the Composite may be greater or less than its respective benchmarks. It is not possible to invest directly in these indexes.